10/21/2002
By
VICTOR GODINEZ / The Dallas Morning News
When will the high-tech job descent hit
bottom? Some say that more cuts are coming by
year's end, but at least one report concludes
that the bottom may have arrived.
SUMMAR
SMITH-ZAK / Staff Photographer
Cary
Welch says his employer, Accucom
Technical Services, will soon hire
about 200 engineers for a new
contract, but he doubts the industry
as a whole is rebounding.
|
"I truly believe the worst is
over," said Melissa Hendrick, executive
director of the Texas Council of the AeA,
formerly the American Electronics Association.
"We feel like the trend is not worsening
– and it may be stabilizing."
Just 700 tech jobs were lost from May to
June, according to the AeA's "Special
Midyear 2002 Tech Employment Report,"
which is based on recently released U.S.
Bureau of Labor Statistics data. That was the
best performance since March 2001. By
contrast, 15,800 jobs were eliminated from
April to May, and 63,800 were lost from
December to January.
That may mean the storm has passed, said
Ms. Hendrick. But, she cautions, "Texas
was one of the last places to feel the serious
impact of this [slowdown], and we're going to
be the last one to feel the pickup."
Cary Welch, senior account manager for
Richardson-based telecom contracting firm
Accucom Technical Services Inc. (www.accu
com.com), said his industry could be in for
more bloodletting.
Mr. Welch said his company recently won a
substantial piece of a major wireless contract
that will require Accucom to hire a couple
hundred telecom engineers for work in Dallas
or elsewhere in the country.
But his recent success aside, Mr. Welch
said he remains pessimistic.
"I still think it's headed down,"
he said. "I think we have done well to
get this contract, but I just think it's going
down.
"I hope I'm wrong, and I hope I'm
being too negative and a lot of positions
start opening up in the next few months, but I
don't see it."
The AeA survey (available at www.aea
net.org/Publications/idmk_midyear2002.asp for
a fee) makes clear the extent of the damage.
From January 2001 to June 2002, 437,000 tech
jobs – 8 percent of the tech workforce –
were eliminated. From January to June this
year, 113,000 jobs were cut.
Ms. Hendrick said that although the report
doesn't take into account job activity after
June, she's seen no anecdotal evidence in
recent months to suggest any drastic trend
changes.
A handful of tech hot spots, including the
software services sector, medical device
manufacturing and medical software, are
helping to mitigate the job cuts, Ms. Hendrick
added.
It's impossible to predict when a
full-scale recovery will begin, she said. And
many jobs, particularly in tech manufacturing,
may be gone for good.
"This time last year, everyone was
talking about it turning around this time this
year," she said. "In May, the vibe I
got from CEOs was almost quiet panic. This is
not over, and it's not going to be over this
year. I'm hopeful we're going to see a serious
turnaround this time next year."
Mr. Welch said many people were too
optimistic when predicting the end of the tech
downturn.
"When it first started, I would keep
running into people who didn't think it was
going to hit them," he said. "It
just seems like every one of those companies
who said that have all been chopped down,
too."
